Eric Schmidt : What the Web will look like in five years?

在上週的Gartner Symposium/ITxpo Orlando 2009, Google CEO Eric Schmidt描述五年後的網路

Eric Schmidt認為以下是五年後的網路趨勢:

(1)Five years from now the internet will be dominated by Chinese-language content.

(2)Today’s teenagers are the model of how the web will work in five years – they jump from app to app to app seamlessly.

(3)Five years is a factor of ten in Moore’s Law, meaning that computers will be capable of far more by that time than they are today.

(4)Within five years there will be broadband well above 100MB in performance – and distribution distinctions between TV, radio and the web will go away.
將會出現超過100MB的頻寬, 影音媒體與網路將沒有界線

(5)”We’re starting to make signifigant money off of Youtube”, content will move towards more video.

(6)”Real time information is just as valuable as all the other information, we want it included in our search results.”

(7)There are many companies beyond Twitter and Facebook doing real time.

(8)”We can index real-time info now – but how do we rank it?”
除了索引即時內容外, 如何評等這些內容是必須解決的問題

(9)It’s because of this fundamental shift towards user-generated information that people will listen more to other people than to traditional sources. Learning how to rank that “is the great challenge of the age.” Schmidt believes Google can solve that problem.
網路更加走向使用者產生的內容, Google一定可以處理來評等這些內容

以上僅就意思翻譯, 如果有翻譯不妥, 還請見諒

上面Eric的意思大概有幾個重點: 中文內容、使用者的即時內容、使用者行為模式、上網的便利性與多樣性

如果各位有在特別注意, 應該會發現Google的搜尋內容中, 簡體中文內容比以往更多了, 當你輸入一個中文關鍵字, 如果不特別選定繁體中文, 常常出現在前幾頁的內容都是簡體中文, 這種情況大概會越來越嚴重, 也就是說未來你大概會被迫不得不開始閱讀簡體中文

使用者的即時內容則在Bing與Google開始把Twitter與Facebook等內容納入後, 真正開始即時的大戰, 相關訊息在”Bing 開始提供 Twitter 即時搜尋“, “Google Social Search“, 目前還看不出來誰能夠真正主導即時內容

而使用者行為模式、上網的便利性與多樣性…更是可能讓網路呈現各種可能, 如我們在2007年所說的”Internet大破譯(六): 未來網路趨勢“, 虛虛實實的境界即將產生, 並且在未來五年內, 新的霸主會慢慢浮出抬面, 到底還是Google跟Microsoft嗎? 還是Twitter、Facebook? 還是另外一個全新的服務? 真的沒有人能夠說得準 …


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